The below is paraphrased from Danske Research Team & Danske Bank...
EUR/USD - Risk is slowly shifting to the upside on EUR/USD as price continues to push higher. Resistance at 1.1131 if held may bring sellers back in. However a clearance above 1.1131 may bring a rally to 1.1189 then 1.1200/37. Support now at 1.1035 and 1.1000 is protecting downside. A setback below those levels will be needed to see return to 1.0971 and 1.0913 lows.
GBP/USD - View is unchanged from yesterday with further downside still expected. The high of the trading session printed 1.3566, a break above will likely squeeze out weak sellers. A break below the 1.3120 low will likely signal bears.
USDCHF - Set back a bit from the .9837 high. Clearance will expose strong resistance at the .9859 and .9887 previous lows. Above those areas may bring in the bulls to push price back up to the previous high at .9956. Higher lows at possibly .9763 and .9707 now support continued upside, a break below those areas may bring weakness.
USDJPY - Price is retaining upside bias from Monday's 101.41 low to reach 103.02 high. Nearby resistance at 103.26 and then 103.55, previous low. Would need to push over the latter to lift stronger recovery towards the 105.00/55 area. Support now at 102.18 and then 101.41 protecting the downside.
The following is paraphrased from Barclays
EURUSD: Upticks are seen as an opportunity to sell at better levels. We are bearish and look for resistance in the 1.1130 area to cap a move lower towards initial targets near Friday’s 1.0910 lows and then the 1.0840 area. Beyond there we are looking towards 1.0710.
USDJPY: We are bearish and would prefer to fade upticks towards the 103.55 former range lows. Our targets are back to Friday’s 99.00 lows and further out towards the 94.80 area.
GBPUSD: We are overall bearish and would look to use upticks as an opportunity to sell at better levels. The 1.3505 former range lows are expected to provide selling interest for a move lower towards targets near 1.3015 and then the 1.2750 area.
AUDUSD: We are bearish and would use upticks towards 0.7520 as an opportunity to sell at better levels. A move below our initial targets near 0.7285 would signal lower towards the 0.7145 lows.
NZDUSD: We would prefer to fade upticks in range towards resistance near 0.7175 and look for a move below our initial targets near 0.6960 to confirm downside traction. Our next targets are towards the 0.6810 area.
USDCAD: We are cautiously bearish given the increased volumes on upticks and would fade upticks towards 1.3190. A move below targets near 1.2655 would signal lower towards the 1.2460 year-to-date lows.
The following is paraphrased from ScotiaBank
USDCAD (1.3004) • CAD is up a modest 0.3%, a relative performer against its high-beta growth-sensitive G10 peers in an environment of elevated risk appetite. There are no domestic releases scheduled ahead of Thursday’s monthly GDP for April, leaving the focus once again centered on the broader tone, with some risk surrounding the release of U.S. PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation measure) at 8:30am ET and EIA oil inventories at 10:30am ET. Risk reversals have been remarkably steady, with no post-Brexit moderation in the premium for protection against CAD weakness. The lack of movement suggests an ongoing concern for market participants as they consider the near-term balance of risk. In terms of CAD drivers, we highlight the risk surrounding the renewed widening in the 2Y U.S.-Canada yield spread.
USDCAD short-term technicals: bullish—signals are bullish across both trend and momentum indicators however their magnitude is remarkably muted and the ADX remains trendless (under 25) at 16. Near-term support is expected at 1.2950 and 1.2920, with impressive resistance noted above 1.31. The 100 day MA (1.3069) has capped USDCAD gains on a closing basis (see bottom chart), however we continue to anticipate a break with expectations of a climb toward 1.33 and 1.35.
EURUSD (1.1079) • Spot remains capped under 1.11, with the market showing little desire to move markets significantly. Eurozone data reflected weaker economic confidence (pre-Brexit) for June. German data reflected stronger consumer confidence (July) and flat to slightly higher m/m readings for the German state CPI data. EU leaders continue to meet in Brussel and are urging the UK to initiate its exit as quickly as possible.
EURUSD short-term technicals: neutral/bearish—EURUSD is essentially moving sideways still. Spot is showing no inclination so far to extend gains through the 1.11 area and we still rather think the break lower in the market last week below the base of the 6-month rising channel base (1.1145/50) casts a quite negative outlook over the EUR from a medium-term point of view. Expect short-term gains to remain limited to the low/mid 1.11 area at most.
GBPUSD (1.3434) • The weaker economic outlook (amid worries about a plunge in business investment), rising market expectations of renewed BoE easing, sovereign downgrades, political chaos, dreadful football and that Brexit thing. The litany of GBP-negative factors apparent after a cursory glance over the UK landscape make it some wonder that the pound is not lower. It remains nearly 10% below levels prevailing at this time last week but there is no real upside potential for the GBP at present beyond short-term positioning adjustments.
GBPUSD short-term technicals: neutral/bearish—Cable looks to have found some support on the intraday charts over the past 24 hours and even the technical signals on the longer-term charts are shaping up a little more constructively. We think the entrenched bear trend has further to play out; relief for the GBP in this context is stability, rather than strength. Given the scale of the GBP’s decline over the past week, retracement potential is significant – in theory. We rather think near-term gains are liable to remain limited to the 1.3475/1.3575 range.
USDJPY (102.71) • JPY is entering the NA session flat vs. the USD, having faded its Asian session gains from the European open. Recent movement in JPY has been remarkably limited and the lack of material weakness has been notable in the context of a broader market tone of risk appetite. JPY is generally trading in tandem with a widening U.S.-Japan 2Y yield spread and measures of sentiment are moving in a similar, JPY negative manner as risk reversals hint to a moderation in the premium for protection against JPY strength.
The following is paraphrased from Danske Bank:
EUR/USD: Probes above the 1.1100 level see the upside limited to 1.1112 high so far. Nearby see more resistance at 1.1131 and lift over this is needed to trigger stronger recovery to the 1.1200 level. Support now at 1.1035 and the 1.1000 level and see break needed to expose 1.0971 then 1.0913 low to retest.
USD/CHF: Rally reached .9837 high to approach the .9847, 200-day MA. Clearance will expose strong resistance at the .9859 and .9887, prev lows. Would need break to clear the way for retest of the .9956 high. Higher lows at .9763 and .9707 supportive of rally from .9522 low and see break needed to weaken.
USD/JPY: Settling back from 102.84 high though the downside seen limited with support starting at 102.00 level then 101.41, Mon's low. Further recovery not ruled out while the latter holds firm. Higher will see scope to 103.26 then the 103.55, recent low. Regaining the latter needed to see return to the 105.00 level.
EUR/CHF: Reached 1.0874 high and see scope to further extend recovery from the 1.0624 low though nearby see strong resistance at 1.0909 then the 200-day MA at 1.0923. Lower high sought for pullback later with support now at the 1.0800 level and 1.0777 low and where break is needed to weaken and return focus to the downside.
GBP/USD: Tight listless intraday trading and below the 1.3566 resistance is keeping pressure on the downside for a later test of last week's low of 1.3120 and break of the latter will trigger stronger selling. Above 1.3566 resistance, room for higher rebound.
EUR/GBP: Settling back from .8380 high which marks approx 50% retracement of the Dec 2008/Jul 2015 decline. Beyond this see strong resistance at the .8400 level and .8467. Lower high sought for setback to retrace the strong up-leg from .7600 level with support now at .8257 and the .8200 level.
The following is paraphrased from ScotiaBank
USDCAD (1.3042) • CAD is up 0.2%, rising vs. the USD in an environment of elevated risk appetite with notable underperformance relative to most of its G10 currency peers with the exception of havens JPY and CHF. The broader tone remains dominant and CAD continues to trade in tandem with oil prices as we note the ongoing disconnect to yield spreads. A renewed widening in the 2Y U.S.-Canada yield spread would likely pressure CAD (support USDCAD). Domestic risk is limited ahead of Thursday’s monthly GDP report for April — one of the last major data releases ahead of the July 13 BoC policy decision and MPR forecast update. Measures of CAD sentiment are remarkably stable as risk reversals suggest a steady premium for protection against CAD weakness.
USDCAD short-term technicals: bullish—USDCAD is struggling to break above its 100 day MA following the bullish resolution of its triangular consolidation from early May (see middle chart). Momentum indicators are bullish and the 9 day MA has broken above its 21 day MA. We look to further upside with a focus on the May 24 high 1.3188 followed by our long anticipated 1.33-1.35 range. Near-term support is expected at 1.2950.
EURUSD (1.1074) • EURUSD has steadied in generally calmer trade. There was little data of any consequence from Europe today. Chancellor Merkel warned the UK that it will not get preferential treatment once it leaves the EU. Nothing has changed in the grander scheme of things post-Brexit so we expect only limited scope for EURUSD to gain currently. There are large 1.10 option expiries today at the NY cut (EUR1.95bn).
EURUSD short-term technicals: neutral/bearish—The sell-off has stopped but a reversal is absent from the charts at this point. At most, markets appear to be consolidating ahead of another push lower. Short-term trends suggest strong initial resistance for EURUSD in the 1.1130 area, which coincides with longer-term (former trend channel support on the daily chart) at 1.1140. Broader trend signals are still aligned bearishly, albeit relatively weakly at this stage.
GBPUSD (1.3333) • Awkward. PM Cameron meets his EU counter-parts face to face in Brussels today. Football wags suggest that the England team would be helpful in developing a quick exit plan from Europe. More seriously, the UK remains politically rudderless, with candidates lining up to replace Cameron and Labour leader Corbyn facing a confidence vote from his party. The situation reeks of an early election. The BoE allotted GBP3.1bn in liquidity today, less than half the amount the market asked for. The GBP may have steadied but there are still significant political and economic risks ahead. We remain bearish.
GBPUSD short-term technicals: neutral/bearish—A 1.7% gain in Cable looks quite positive but, in the context of the 12% drop from Thursday’s peak that preceded it, this is a bounce of the “dead cat” variety. There is still a little more corrective potential in the GBP in the short term towards the mid/upper 1.34 area but we expect sterling to struggle on gains to the mid/upper 1.34s.
USDJPY (102.35) • JPY is soft, down 0.4% vs. the USD while underperforming its G10 peers in an environment of elevated risk appetite. JPY weakness has been relatively muted with a remarkably tight trading range over the past few sessions. The broader tone remains dominant and we continue to highlight JPY’s vulnerability to haven-driven gains. Measures of sentiment are relatively steady, as risk reversals hint to a slight moderation in the premium for protection against JPY strength. Comments from Japanese officials have been remarkably sanguine, with Finance Minister Aso highlighting FX market stability relative to his ‘worst-case scenario thinking’. Intervention risk remains low.
USDJPY short-term technicals: bearish—USDJPY has been remarkably stable around 102 over the past two sessions however the broader technical picture remains biased to further downside. Trend and momentum signals are bearish despite a moderation in the RSI—rising off the extended oversold (sub-30) levels from last Monday. Bearish trend signals appear to be strengthening.
The below is paraphrased from Dankse Bank...
EUR/USD - View is unchanged with the appearance of an inside-range from yesterday's trading session. As it stands, below 1.0913 low will catch bears eye with next support at 1.0826 then 1.0778.
GBP/USD - Intraday trade is in tight consolidation, to squeeze out weak shorts a push above 1.3566 high set in yesterday's trading session is needed. A stronger rebound may result above 1.3566. Break of 1.3120 low will catch bears eye.
USD/CHF - The upside strength is still firmly in play with prices sustaining well above .9687 breaking-point. Below breaking-point will take pressure off the upside. Above high printed in yesterday's trading session may bring buyers, but beware of 200-day MA line at .9844 then higher at .9920.
USD/JPY - View is unchanged with yesterday's inside-range trading session settling into consolidation. Risk is still to the downside and selling into upticks will be favored. Below 99.02 low may open downside movement to 97.60 then 96.94.
The below text is paraphrased from Barclays.
EUR/USD: Our bearish view was encouraged by Friday’s low close. We are looking for a move back towards Friday’s 1.0910 lows and then towards a swing target near 1.0840. Beyond there we are looking towards the 1.0710 area.
USD/JPY: We are bearish and would prefer to fade upticks towards the 103.55 former range lows. Our targets are back to Friday’s 99.00 lows and further out towards the 94.80 area.
GBP/USD: We are bearish. Friday’s high volume sell-off points lower. We expect a move towards our targets near 1.3015 and then the 1.2750 area.
AUD/USD: Friday’s key reversal day encourages our bearish view. We look for a move below initial targets near 0.7285 to signal lower towards the 0.7145 lows.
NZD/USD: We have turned bearish following Friday’s reversal candle. A move below 0.6960, our initial targets would point lower towards 0.6890 and then the 0.6810 area.
USD/CAD: We prefer to fade upticks towards 1.3190 and look for a move below targets near 1.2655 to signal lower towards the 1.2460 year-to-date lows.
The below research is paraphrased from Dankse Bank.
After the Brexit victory on the 23-24 of June, many of the major foreign leading currency pairs declined sharply. EUR/USD broke a major uptrend and has since declined to 1.0913 low last Friday. Risks are turning towards downside and intraday trade is expected to attract sellers. However keep in mind that nervousness in the market may widen the spread. Below 1.0913 may attract sellers with next good support at 1.0826.
The Brexit victory on the 23-24 of June sparked one of the largest sell-offs in history on GBP/USD with that market moving over 1700 pips from the 1.45 high. Since then however, rebound remains weak and this is putting further risk on the downside. Below the 1.3229 low set last trading session may attract sellers with next support at 1.2930 then 1.2690. With that being said, it would take a move above the 1.4013 resistance to make shorts panic.
After the almost 800 pip drop last Friday due to the Brexit victory, profit taking on shorts are helping to squeeze out some weak shorts, however expected risk to be still on the downside. Below the 99.02 low set last session may trigger renewed selling with next support at 97.60 then 96.94.
While USD/CHF was not impacted all that heavily last Friday due to the Brexit victory, the dollar strength did spark a sharp rally breaking above the .9687 hurdle. This may turn focus towards upside and current setback should attract fresh buyers. Above last Friday's high of .9804 may trigger an extension to next area of resistance .9844 then .9920.